Pundits all over the commonwealth have said that Rand Paul’s success in the senate primary will push Trey Grayson to the right. Page One and B&P are keeping track of that.

Grayson would likely benefit from winning over the social conservatives that may be attracted to Paul’s libertarian-style fiscal conservatism. Paul’s supporters like to bring up the fact that Grayson once supported Bill Clinton, but so did the state of Kentucky, too…twice, so it’s not like a Kentucky Republican who voted for Clinton at some point is dramatically out of the mainstream. It’s hard to believe that there has been a sudden shift toward Paul’s brand of Republicanism in the last few years, making Clinton’s wins in 1992 and 1996 irrelevant, but it’s possible. Maybe Grayson is concerned about Paul’s sudden popularity regardless. As Dan in the comments pointed out, this is a primary we’re talking about. I think Grayson’s Clinton support will be less of a factor in the general election but I’m saying that many primary voters are unlikely to see a big scarlet ‘D’ on Grayson’s chest for what he may now call a ‘youthful indiscretion.’

I’d like to see a breakdown of Republican voters in Kentucky. How many of Paul’s supporters are self-identified independents? How many haven’t voted before? Maybe I’m reading too much Nate Silver, but it seems like while Paul’s popularity is real, his lead leans more toward statistical anomaly than conservative uprising.