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A Senate poll from Public Policy Polling gives Rand Paul a 44% to 25% lead over Trey Grayson in the Republican Primary. Jack Conway leads Daniel Mongiardo 37% to 33%.
Given the undecided numbers in the poll, it seems like familiarity is still the issue.
Here’s a PDF breakdown, courtesy Page One.
Today’s Courier editorial urges Metro Councilman and Democratic candidate for mayor Jim King to drop out of the race. The piece argues that King does not have the temperament or judgement to be mayor:
He should abandon his candidacy for the Democratic nomination, in order to allow for the focus to return to vital issues facing the metro area.
The paper also criticizes King’s plan to revamp the police force, and concludes:
The community needs to move on from discussions that center on Mr. King. It needs to hear from plausible candidates about their vision for Louisville, their assessment of the city’s strengths and problems, their views of the area’s economic direction, and their ideas for where the city and the office of mayor go after the long tenure of Jerry Abramson.
Mr. King’s serial errors are a constant distraction from such debate. Louisville deserves better. Mr. King can help put an important decision back on track by stepping aside.
This is a bold statement from the C-J. But if the community does indeed move on from discussions about King…what will we talk about? King gets so much attention because he’s the only candidate doing much campaigning right now. The other candidates have had discussions, sure. But aside from Tyler Allen’s bloggers’ breakfasts and the occasional statement from other camps, it seems like the race is fairly quiet. I’m sure this will pick up, but until there’s something else to talk about, how could mayoral conversations not center on King?
While Kentucky is on its way to a record number of election filings, it’s unlikely that the Commonwealth’s 2010 will live up to Tennessee’s. It seems all the big action is happening south of our border.
One House incumbent from the state is expected to face a serious challenge in November. At least two incumbents, one in each party, are likely to get a serious primary challenge. Then there are three open House seats, two of which are in serious jeopardy of flipping to the Republican Party. On top of all that, Tennessee will feature an open governor’s race.
All told, six of the state’s nine House seats appear likely to be seriously contested — a remarkable development in a heavily gerrymandered Congress where, even amid political volatility, most incumbents will still have safe passage to reelection in 2010.
“Take a look at the country as a whole; there’s not a lot of competition out there. Tennessee stands in a bit of contrast,” said Vanderbilt University political science professor John Geer, who has written extensively about campaigns and elections. “I expect both parties’ congressional committees will invest a lot of money in Tennessee because you can move a couple of seats one way or another, and that’s not true for the bulk of the states,” Geer said.
Democratic mayoral candidate Tyler Allen is streaming his blogger’s breakfast today. You can see it here and ask a question. If you miss it, it’ll be archived online.
Jake has a post about the Rand Paul campaign’s efforts to have independents switch their registrations to Republican for the primary.
Apparently, the Paulies have been told that if they can get 32,000 votes in Jefferson County, Rand Paul will win the primary.
Paul’s supporters often tout the number of independent supporters in their ranks. They don’t support either party enough to self-identify, or they are disenfranchised former party supporters, usually Republican defectors. It seems like a practical move for any candidate with independent supporters to push for new registrations.
South Carolina Republican Senator Jim DeMint is calling for…
…some new Republicans, people who believe in constitutional government, a balanced budget and liberty,” DeMint [told Politico]. “I’m out across the country recruiting new Republicans who I think if they get here will not only challenge the institutions of government but be willing to even challenge the Republican Party and our leadership if they feel like we’re going in the wrong direction.”
Could that mean Republican Senate hopeful Rand Paul will get DeMint’s seal of approval? DeMint says he’s willing to go outside of the current party structure. That’s where Paul comfortably resides.
This could put Paul in a tough spot, which his opponent Trey Grayson has already pointed out. If Paul has DeMint’s support, will he be obligated to support any attempt by DeMint to seek the minority leadership post? If so, that will mean opposing Mitch McConnell, Kentucky’s senior senator.
At first, that video comparing Republican senate candidate Trey Grayson to Hitler seemed like a slip-up from a wayward Rand Paul (Grayson’s opponent for anyone not following the race) supporter. Then The Hill picked up Jake’s story.
Now, (via B&P) some Rand Paul supporters say the video was a dirty trick played by the Grayson campaign.
From “Stop Turncoat Trey”
[Jake] got [the video] from a “prominent Kentucky republican.” Now why would one send that video to “jake”?
[edit]
My hypothesis is the Grayson campaign made this video, posted it on YouTube, leaked the video to PageOneKentucky, and then the PageOneKentucky story to the Hill. The links provided by “jake” to ‘out’ ‘TruthisTreason’, many of them very old links, make me question if “jake” did that research or if it was done ahead of time by the leaker and provided to him. This seems like a professional dirty trick by a desperate campaign. Note also now that the media is on it the video is gone.
The video’s original post on the Paul forum is gone, too. I don’t know about any of these conspiracies over who made the video, but without further evidence, maybe Occam’s Razor is the way to go with this one.
Wayside’s decision to rent hotel rooms rather than wait for a decision on shelter zoning has always had political ramifications, even though it’s not a political move.
On State of Affairs last week, the C-J’s Dan Klepal said that the hotel move will likely become an issue in the mayor’s race…and it only took a weekend for that prediction to come through. Republican candidates Chris Thieneman and Hal Heiner seem to agree on the ends, but disagree on the means. Rick Redding has more on the differences.
Update: Here’s the story from WFPL’s Rick Howlett.
Activist and cycling advocate Jackie Green is running as an independent for mayor. From his website:
Louisville will meet the challenges of the twenty-first century by:
developing a great public transit system before building any new Ohio River bridge
establishing an urban services boundary
investing in our urban center
creating a city center that is liveable, not just a place to work and then party til dawn
investing in the liveability of our established neighborhoods
reducing public infrastructure subsidies for new fringe neighborhoods
improving housing within our neighborhoods
investing in the education of our children, not in a fleet of school buses
making our streets safe enough to walk and bicycle
giving school assignment preferences to students who will walk and bicycle to school
developing a low energy, a clean energy, diverse, strong economy
reducing our local economy’s dependency on cheap, plentiful fuel
reducing mobile source pollution of air and water
reducing impermeable surfaces
increasing urban gardening
supporting and diversifying regional agriculture
leading state government to change law and funding mechanisms supportive of this agenda
backing up our unequivocal message to Frankfort with unwavering commitment within Metro government
Professor and coffee shop-owner Nimbus Couzin is also running as an independent.
Pundits all over the commonwealth have said that Rand Paul’s success in the senate primary will push Trey Grayson to the right. Page One and B&P are keeping track of that.
Grayson would likely benefit from winning over the social conservatives that may be attracted to Paul’s libertarian-style fiscal conservatism. Paul’s supporters like to bring up the fact that Grayson once supported Bill Clinton, but so did the state of Kentucky, too…twice, so it’s not like a Kentucky Republican who voted for Clinton at some point is dramatically out of the mainstream. It’s hard to believe that there has been a sudden shift toward Paul’s brand of Republicanism in the last few years, making Clinton’s wins in 1992 and 1996 irrelevant, but it’s possible. Maybe Grayson is concerned about Paul’s sudden popularity regardless. As Dan in the comments pointed out, this is a primary we’re talking about. I think Grayson’s Clinton support will be less of a factor in the general election but I’m saying that many primary voters are unlikely to see a big scarlet ‘D’ on Grayson’s chest for what he may now call a ‘youthful indiscretion.’
I’d like to see a breakdown of Republican voters in Kentucky. How many of Paul’s supporters are self-identified independents? How many haven’t voted before? Maybe I’m reading too much Nate Silver, but it seems like while Paul’s popularity is real, his lead leans more toward statistical anomaly than conservative uprising.
