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Here’s what we reported on today:
I’ve heard a lot of competing analysis of the current healthcare overhaul. Some pundits are saying that overall dissatisfaction with the President and Congress’ plans comes from both sides. Progressives want Obama to be more firm and conservatives want more control.
While the Democrats do have the power to push a public option through the House, the Senate could be more…prickly. There are 59 Democratic votes, but a few of those belong to Blue Dogs. While a reconciliation vote could ensure an overhaul with 51 Senate votes, it’s likely that what’s happening now among Democrats with carry over into the 2010 elections.
If a public option passes, it will be one of the hottest campaign points next year. Nate Silver over at 538 offers an analysis of how progressives could fight Blue Dogs next year using the public option. The key, he says, is for progressives to run in poorer districts held by Blue Dogs and conservatives.
Kentucky and Nebraska, for instance, each gave Barack Obama 41 percent of their vote. But in Kentucky, the public option is supported (barely) at 46-45, whereas in Nebraska it’s opposed 39-47. What’s the difference? Kentucky is much poorer than Nebraska — 17.0 percent of its residents are impoverished, versus 11.5 percent in the Cornhusker state. Likewise, Nevada gave Barack Obama 55 percent of its vote, whereas Cooper’s TN-5 gave him 56. But in Nevada, the public option is supported 52-40, whereas in TN-5, the margin is much larger: 61-28 in favor. TN-5’s poverty rate is about 50 percent higher than Nevada’s.
I had a chat with a fellow politics junkie the other day. He said the Democratic tent is too big. There’s Evan Bayh and Dennis Kucinich. It’s like the Democrats at the turn of the century. Post-Reconstruction southerners, wealthy titans of industry, immigrants and laborers were all in the party and it fell apart for a while. I likened acquiescence to FDR’s ill-advised budget balance in 1937, which lost his party 72 seats in the House the following year.
It’s fair to say that Obama has proved many pundits wrong by transcending conventional wisdom and achieving unexpected results (eg: the calls to go negative in the primary). Congress, however, has not. A bad move on the President’s part could shake a few Democrats out of the House. Silver’s advice could toss a few more in. And those few would be more in line with the President.
Pourmecoffee’s blog offers a more humorous take on this situation:
EXPLAINED: Why progressives should mount primary challenges against blue dogs.
ScienceDaily (Sep. 8, 2009) — A monkey that has acquired the sole power to hand out apples is generously rewarded with grooming sessions by the other monkeys in its group. But as soon as another monkey can hand out apples as well, the market value of the first monkey is halved.
Too many overprivileged blue-doggish elected officeholders in Democratic districts handing out too many apples in exchange for too many grooming sessions.
However, this could all backfire, too. Events like the Tea Parties have rallied a lot of people who might not otherwise have voted. These people could vote for libertarian-leaning candidates like Rand Paul in primary elections, but support the more conservative candidate in the generals.
Here is the full audio of Congressman John Yarmuth’s town hall, held on Wednesday night at Central High School. Francene Cucinello of WHAS-AM hosted the event.
The site Capitol Words tracks how often certain words are said in Congress.
Looking at Kentucky’s delegation, the most commonly used word is Kentucky and the most talkative member is Senator Mitch McConnell. That makes sense. McConnell is the minority leader and a few random glances at other states’ stats found a similar trend in words said.
Here’s the list of most-to-least talkative.
- Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
- Harold Rogers (R-KY-5)
- James Bunning (R-KY)
- Geoff Davis (R-KY-4)
- John Yarmuth (D-KY-3)
- Ed Whitfield (R-KY-1)
- Brett Guthrie (R-KY-2)
- Ben Chandler (D-KY-6)
- Ron Lewis (R-KY-2)
Here’s what we reported on today:
- Yarmuth Says 51 Votes May Pass Healthcare Reform In Senate
- Norton Brownsboro Hospital Opens Wednesday
- IIllegal Activity Suspected in Special State Senate Election
- Historial Group Breaks Ground for Move Downtown
- McConnell, Chandler Tour Chemical Weapons Storage Site
- Jim King To Announce Candidacy For Mayor
- Flood Committee Seeks Public Comment
- TARC Spends ARRA Funds on Annex
(Via the Rural Blog)
Jon Bailey with the Center for Rural Affairs says the public option will dramatically help rural Americans.
“Nearly three-quarters of the rural uninsured own or work in small businesses, and cost/affordability is by far the most cited reason for being uninsured. The availability of affordable and quality health insurance is the primary barrier to entrepreneurship – the most effective rural development strategy – reaching its potential for rural people and rural communities. Most drafts of proposed health care reform bills in Congress contain individual and business mandates to carry or provide health insurance; such mandates – if they depend on the current health insurance system that does not work well for many rural people as the only health insurance option – are unlikely to address unique rural challenges.”
When I talked to Rep. Yarmuth last weekend, he said he’s fairly confident that a public option will pass Congress, and he gave a similar reason for why he supports it. Of course, there are arguments against the public option, and Bailey’s views don’t represent those of WFPL, Louisville Public Media, etc.
Here’s what we reported on today:
- Amazon Acquires Zappos
- Realtors Association Optimistic About Home Sales
- KY Senators Defeated on Concealed Weapons
- Health Department Director Says ‘Public Option’ Not Enough
- Prenatal Pollution Exposure Affects IQ: New Study
- 2009 Kentucky Crafted Performs Better than Expected
- LG&E Seeks Surcharge Increase
