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Jack Conway says he leads Daniel Mongiardo among people who know both candidates. Is Conway suffering from a lack of recognition outside of Louisville?
And what about Rand Paul leading Trey Grayson? It seems like Grayson’s supporters have taken steps to get voters more acquainted with Paul’s alleged platform in hopes that some libertarian-like ideals won’t appeal to social conservatives.
You’ve probably heard about the latest Survey USA Senate poll that has Rand Paul leading Trey Grayson and Daniel Mongriardo with a double-digit over Jack Conway. Well, Conway has another poll he’s citing to show that he’s not out of the race.
But what will this mean for the Senate race? I imagine Grayson will continue his slight lean to the right and I wonder if Conway is thinking of using those infamous Mongiardo tapes in some upcoming ads. Maybe he’s regretting not doing so already.
Mysterious YouTube user SenRace2010 has released his (or her) second compilation of apparently secret recordings of Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo. Mongiardo seems to be bashing Governor Steve Beshear again.
Beshear will be on State of Affairs today. Will he dismiss the recordings as more “pranksterism?” We’ll know at 1:00.
I imagine someone at Jack Conway headquarters is already putting together a TV ad with these clips.
Last week, Mayor Jerry Abramson reiterated his support for Conway’s Senate bid. Abramson’s 2011 running mate Beshear has endorsed Mongiardo.
Here’s what we reported on today:
- In Depth – MSD Considering Buyouts To Prevent Floods
- Another Drug Toss Set For Thursday Through Saturday
- Conway Applauds Gouging Law Ruling
- Indiana Launches Flu Shot Campaign
- Blanton Leaving Governor’s Office
- Arts Groups Offer Discounted Tickets Again This Season
- City, Firefighters Approaching Deal
- In Depth: Governor’s Arts Awards Handed Out In Frankfort
I was out yesterday, but here are a few quick updates on what I missed.
First: Greg Fischer and Jim King topped a fifth of a million in fundraising and Chris Thieneman hasn’t filed to raise money yet. Link.
Second: Rasmussen’s latest poll gives Jack Conway a better chance than Daniel Mongiardo at winning the general election. Link. But the real question with Conway/Mongiardo is who had the better use of “S.O.B.” in the news? Conway’s was loud and proud at Fancy Farm, but Mongiardo’s was secretive and stinging.
Ah, late summer. The kids are back in school and pollsters have cracked open their new Five-Stars in anticipation of another campaign.
WHAS and Survey USA teamed up for the first poll of the 2010 Senate race. Here are the results, from WHAS.
The WHAS11 Survey USA poll of Kentuckians over the last three days shows[Lieutenant Governor Daniel] Mongiardo with an 8 point advantage [over Attorney General Jack Conway], 39% to 31%, a lead that Mongiardo will certainly trumpet in his fundraising efforts.
[edit]
For the republicans, Secretary of State Trey Grayson has been considered the presumptive nominee.
But, Bowling Green ophthalmologist Rand Paul is a wild card…
So far, Grayson leads 37% to 26% despite the 11 point lead, that’s a strong early showing for the relatively unknown eye doctor.
That is indeed a strong showing for Rand Paul. His money bomb is in two days. That could be another surprisingly strong showing for the son of Congressman Ron Paul, who’s like the Alfred Nobel of money bombs.
We all have probably seen Stephen Colbert’s take on Attorney General Jack Conway’s declaration that he’s a tough SOB, but Joe Gerth writes about another Conway video. This one criticizes Conway for not being tough and for apparently changing his hair color.
The Mongiardo campaign says they have nothing to do with the video, but I’m not ruling out the fact that this isn’t an act of political hackery. Here are the stats on user tjenkins106:
Channel Views:68
Age:30
Joined:August 06, 2009
Last Sign In:3 hours ago
Videos Watched:0
Subscribers:0
Country:United States
A user with one video, registered yesterday who hasn’t watched anything while logged in? Looks like this account was created specifically for this video. Those stats don’t mesh with the average YouTube prankster. To say a politico did it would be speculation, but the evidence indicates that the author is either a newcomer to YouTube or created a new account to post this video apart from his or her other work.
There’s been some news since our last update on the controversial vandalized river boulder known as Indian Head Rock.
According to the AP, there may be another one.
It’s also possible there is another rock somewhere upstream that “has a likeness of an Indian with a headdress of feathers,” Duvall said in court papers.
Shelley Catharine Johnson, a Conway spokeswoman, said the Kentucky attorney general’s office will be consulting with University of Kentucky archaeologists in deciding how to continue.
Nevertheless, attorney Mike Curtis, who represents Shaffer, said he doesn’t believe prosecutors could have proven Shaffer’s rock to be the “Indian Head Rock” talked about in history books. Curtis said the description of the rock given in more than one book describes the carving as that of a “colossal human head.”
That description does not fit with the rock involved in this case, Curtis said.
“I don’t think anyone knows,” Curtis said. “Based on the literature, it couldn’t be.”
So all this fighting is over an impostor rock?
My favorite website for punditry is FiveThirtyEight. I like it because editor Nate Silver and his team of bloggers rely on stats rather than wild speculation. It cuts down on hackery.
For some time now, Jim Bunning’s Senate seat has made 538’s list of the most vulnerable seats. In July, it was number 2, with Silver saying:
Attorney General Jack Conway has thus far outfundraised intraparty rival Daniel Mongiardo. That is arguably good news for the Democrats, since Conway has tested slightly stronger than Mongiardo against extremely vulnerable Republican incumbent Jim Bunning.
Silver hasn’t weighed in on Bunning’s retirement yet, but it seems like a Conway-Grayson race is inevitable, and that will likely be more exciting than a Bunning-Conway contest. Can Grayson keep the seat under GOP control? I’ll be reporting on that later today on WFPL.
