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Pundits all over the commonwealth have said that Rand Paul’s success in the senate primary will push Trey Grayson to the right. Page One and B&P are keeping track of that.
Grayson would likely benefit from winning over the social conservatives that may be attracted to Paul’s libertarian-style fiscal conservatism. Paul’s supporters like to bring up the fact that Grayson once supported Bill Clinton, but so did the state of Kentucky, too…twice, so it’s not like a Kentucky Republican who voted for Clinton at some point is dramatically out of the mainstream. It’s hard to believe that there has been a sudden shift toward Paul’s brand of Republicanism in the last few years, making Clinton’s wins in 1992 and 1996 irrelevant, but it’s possible. Maybe Grayson is concerned about Paul’s sudden popularity regardless. As Dan in the comments pointed out, this is a primary we’re talking about. I think Grayson’s Clinton support will be less of a factor in the general election but I’m saying that many primary voters are unlikely to see a big scarlet ‘D’ on Grayson’s chest for what he may now call a ‘youthful indiscretion.’
I’d like to see a breakdown of Republican voters in Kentucky. How many of Paul’s supporters are self-identified independents? How many haven’t voted before? Maybe I’m reading too much Nate Silver, but it seems like while Paul’s popularity is real, his lead leans more toward statistical anomaly than conservative uprising.
Jack Conway says he leads Daniel Mongiardo among people who know both candidates. Is Conway suffering from a lack of recognition outside of Louisville?
And what about Rand Paul leading Trey Grayson? It seems like Grayson’s supporters have taken steps to get voters more acquainted with Paul’s alleged platform in hopes that some libertarian-like ideals won’t appeal to social conservatives.
You’ve probably heard about the latest Survey USA Senate poll that has Rand Paul leading Trey Grayson and Daniel Mongriardo with a double-digit over Jack Conway. Well, Conway has another poll he’s citing to show that he’s not out of the race.
But what will this mean for the Senate race? I imagine Grayson will continue his slight lean to the right and I wonder if Conway is thinking of using those infamous Mongiardo tapes in some upcoming ads. Maybe he’s regretting not doing so already.
Here are your updates for the 2010 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate.
Politico catches Senator Jim Bunning dozing off in a meeting. Maybe he’s dreaming about retiring.
Rand Paul’s moneybomb is today. He’s been telling everyone about it.
The Trey Grayson camp is fairly quiet. But will the Secretary of State come out against cancer?
Earlier this month we told you about Rand Paul’s second money bomb, which is billed as a fight between Paul’s grassroots base and Trey Grayson’s apparent elitism. The money bomb drops tomorrow and while the Paul campaign says it has nothing to do with the fundraising, Jake points out that Paul sure is promoting it a lot.
Politico has an interesting piece on what Rand Paul’s entry means for the Republican Senate Primary.
While Paul, an ophthalmologist, is a long shot, his presence in the contest all but guarantees that [Secretary of State Trey] Grayson will be embroiled in an expensive and potentially damaging primary contest.
It’s not the scenario the GOP was hoping for. Party officials had been maneuvering behind the scenes for months to ease out Bunning, the irascible former Major League Baseball pitcher who was widely viewed as unlikely to hold his seat against a credible Democrat. The idea was to clear a path for Grayson, who has twice been elected statewide.
“From a larger tactical perspective, I think the fact that both Grayson and Paul will raise and spend a lot of money is something the party wanted to avoid,” said Scott Jennings, a Louisville-based GOP strategist who served as deputy political director in the George W. Bush White House.
At the moment Grayson has the support and money to win the fight against Paul, but the article makes the point that Paul will use up too much of Grayson’s funds and energy, leaving him further to the right and struggling for funds when the general election starts in earnest. If Paul somehow won the primary, he could likely use his grassroots support and relative newness to politics to generate excitement. Of course, either candidate will benefit or suffer from national shifts in political opinion caused by the President and Congress as well as from the popularity of the eventual Democratic candidate.
This time…it’s personal.
A group of Rand Paul supporters have set up another money bomb for the Republican Senate hopeful. This is similar to Paul’s last bomb, only it’s being billed as a battle between the everyman and the elitist.
On September 23rd, twenty three Republican US Senators are holding a $500 per plate fundraiser in Washington DC for Trey Grayson – Rand Paul’s opponent. This deck stacking favoritism in a highly contested GOP primary is unacceptable.
Join in the fight and help Rand Paul deliver a knock out punch to establishment candidate Trey Grayson with a pledge to donate $100 on the same date!
The first money bomb fizzled out, netting Paul less than half of the one million dollar goal his supporters had set. If bombs are Paul’s main source of campaign income, he may need to do more to keep up with Grayson’s efforts.
We’ve talked about how Paul’s efforts could push Grayson to the right. Any such move on Grayson’s part would be voluntary, and probably not even necessary, but the Secretary seems to be taking the bait. I wonder if this new effort to brand Grayson as an elitist will lead to the Secretary of State affecting a southern accent and telling Paul to “Chew on his hide,” before swearing. Oh wait…wrong party.
Here’s what we reported on today:
Ah, late summer. The kids are back in school and pollsters have cracked open their new Five-Stars in anticipation of another campaign.
WHAS and Survey USA teamed up for the first poll of the 2010 Senate race. Here are the results, from WHAS.
The WHAS11 Survey USA poll of Kentuckians over the last three days shows[Lieutenant Governor Daniel] Mongiardo with an 8 point advantage [over Attorney General Jack Conway], 39% to 31%, a lead that Mongiardo will certainly trumpet in his fundraising efforts.
[edit]
For the republicans, Secretary of State Trey Grayson has been considered the presumptive nominee.
But, Bowling Green ophthalmologist Rand Paul is a wild card…
So far, Grayson leads 37% to 26% despite the 11 point lead, that’s a strong early showing for the relatively unknown eye doctor.
That is indeed a strong showing for Rand Paul. His money bomb is in two days. That could be another surprisingly strong showing for the son of Congressman Ron Paul, who’s like the Alfred Nobel of money bombs.
Trey Grayson is cranking up his conservative rhetoric. Page One has the text of an e-mail blast from the Secretary of State and Senate Candidate.
Washington liberals continue to advocate an explosion in federal spending and government control of all aspects of our lives, including our health care. Since President Obama took office America has run up $1.3 trillion in debt – a figure as staggering as it is unsustainable.
I am committed to fighting against an agenda that cripples our economy and puts the health care you currently enjoy at risk. You can count on me to stand up for a health care plan that you can choose and that you can afford, and when we’re finished, a government you can afford too.
We discussed this yesterday. I’m not saying Grayson is pandering, because this is something lots of candidates do. They lean to the left, right or center to attract voters in election time and many of them do it earnestly. Rand Paul’s supporters may say that Grayson is threatened by Paul’s small-government conservatism, but I don’t know how viable of an assertion that is. Like I said yesterday, I think Paul’s power in the campaign can’t be measured until his first money bomb on August 20th.
