No Kentucky Races In The Fix’s Top Ten

The Fix has put together a list of the top ten Senate races of the decade…

1. South Dakota 2004
2. Missouri 2000
3. Minnesota 2002
4. Minnesota 2008
5. New Jersey 2002
6. Illinois 2004
7. New York 2000
8. Virginia 2006
9. Connecticut 2006
10. Georgia 2002

No Lunsford-McConnell, Mongiardo-Bunning, etc.

What do you think of the list? I cast the first-ever vote of my life in race #6.

Will Paul-Grayson-Conway-Mongiardo 2010 make another list?

Paul Leads In Senate Poll

A Senate poll from Public Policy Polling gives Rand Paul a 44% to 25% lead over Trey Grayson in the Republican Primary. Jack Conway leads Daniel Mongiardo 37% to 33%.

Given the undecided numbers in the poll, it seems like familiarity is still the issue.

Here’s a PDF breakdown, courtesy Page One.

Electoral Action Down South

While Kentucky is on its way to a record number of election filings, it’s unlikely that the Commonwealth’s 2010 will live up to Tennessee’s. It seems all the big action is happening south of our border.

One House incumbent from the state is expected to face a serious challenge in November. At least two incumbents, one in each party, are likely to get a serious primary challenge. Then there are three open House seats, two of which are in serious jeopardy of flipping to the Republican Party. On top of all that, Tennessee will feature an open governor’s race.

All told, six of the state’s nine House seats appear likely to be seriously contested — a remarkable development in a heavily gerrymandered Congress where, even amid political volatility, most incumbents will still have safe passage to reelection in 2010.

“Take a look at the country as a whole; there’s not a lot of competition out there. Tennessee stands in a bit of contrast,” said Vanderbilt University political science professor John Geer, who has written extensively about campaigns and elections. “I expect both parties’ congressional committees will invest a lot of money in Tennessee because you can move a couple of seats one way or another, and that’s not true for the bulk of the states,” Geer said.

Paul Campaign Targeting Registrations

Jake has a post about the Rand Paul campaign’s efforts to have independents switch their registrations to Republican for the primary.

Apparently, the Paulies have been told that if they can get 32,000 votes in Jefferson County, Rand Paul will win the primary.

Paul’s supporters often tout the number of independent supporters in their ranks. They don’t support either party enough to self-identify, or they are disenfranchised former party supporters, usually Republican defectors. It seems like a practical move for any candidate with independent supporters to push for new registrations.

Grayson Hitler Video Vanishes, Story Goes Viral

At first, that video comparing Republican senate candidate Trey Grayson to Hitler seemed like a slip-up from a wayward Rand Paul (Grayson’s opponent for anyone not following the race) supporter. Then The Hill picked up Jake’s story.

Now, (via B&P) some Rand Paul supporters say the video was a dirty trick played by the Grayson campaign.

From “Stop Turncoat Trey”

[Jake] got [the video] from a “prominent Kentucky republican.” Now why would one send that video to “jake”?

[edit]

My hypothesis is the Grayson campaign made this video, posted it on YouTube, leaked the video to PageOneKentucky, and then the PageOneKentucky story to the Hill. The links provided by “jake” to ‘out’ ‘TruthisTreason’, many of them very old links, make me question if “jake” did that research or if it was done ahead of time by the leaker and provided to him. This seems like a professional dirty trick by a desperate campaign. Note also now that the media is on it the video is gone.

The video’s original post on the Paul forum is gone, too. I don’t know about any of these conspiracies over who made the video, but without further evidence, maybe Occam’s Razor is the way to go with this one.

Senate Updates

Here are some Senate race updates…

First, an explanation of the split between Republican Rand Paul and the National Republican Senatorial Committee from the CJ. The argument is over an NRSC endorsement in the primary.

“The NRSC will not endorse in the primary, and I think most Kentuckians will welcome the fact that they’ll be able to make their decision on the merits of the candidates and not on undue outside influence,” Paul, a Bowling Green ophthalmologist, said in an interview.

Paul said he believed the committee was “hedging its bets” because it no longer believes that Secretary of State Trey Grayson is the odds-on favorite to win.

But Brian Walsh, a spokesman for the committee, said in an interview that Bumps didn’t say what Paul claimed he did.

Although the senatorial committee hasn’t endorsed anyone in the race, it’s generally assumed that the group is backing Grayson.

In September, 24 senators — including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Sen. John Cornyn, the committee’s chairman — held a fundraiser for Grayson at the group’s headquarters.

“Randy did speak with Mr. Paul,” Walsh said. “But what Mr. Paul told you was not entirely accurate. What Randy told him was that the NRSC does not anticipate making any endorsements in the race but that we reserve the right to do so.”

Next, Al Cross‘ CJ column is all about mountaintop removal’s role in the senate race, particularly in the Democratic primary.

Coal jobs pay well, so they contribute more on average to Kentucky’s economy, and the industry contributes through its sales and purchases. But the available data for mining in Kentucky (mostly coal, but also including limestone and more minor materials) show that its share of the gross state product isn’t much greater than coal’s share of jobs and has gone down in the last decade. Last year it was 1.45 percent.

At the same time, coal has never been more controversial. In addition to climate change, there is increasing concern about effects of the mercury and other pollutants it contains, and the impact of strip mining on the Cumberland-Allegheny Plateau. “Mountaintop removal” has become the generic if often inaccurate name for most surface mining in Central Appalachia, and it has become a catchphrase and rallying point.

Every five years, the Kentucky Environmental Education Council pays for a survey that asks Kentuckians to name the state’s top environmental problems. Ten years ago and five years ago, the top three problems were water pollution, air pollution and waste management, in that order. This year, the top two were the same, but there was a new No. 3: mountaintop removal or strip mining in general.

Senator Chambliss, That’s Mississippi

National Geographic has launched an interesting web feature. They asked senators to to draw their home state and point out at least three areas of interest.

Since Senators aren’t generally elected for their artistic abilities, it’s easy to forgive some inaccuracies. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss, however, seems to have confused his home state for Mississippi, which is all the way on the other side of Alabama.

(via Wonkette)

Grayson’s Conservative Credentials

Pundits all over the commonwealth have said that Rand Paul’s success in the senate primary will push Trey Grayson to the right. Page One and B&P are keeping track of that.

Grayson would likely benefit from winning over the social conservatives that may be attracted to Paul’s libertarian-style fiscal conservatism. Paul’s supporters like to bring up the fact that Grayson once supported Bill Clinton, but so did the state of Kentucky, too…twice, so it’s not like a Kentucky Republican who voted for Clinton at some point is dramatically out of the mainstream. It’s hard to believe that there has been a sudden shift toward Paul’s brand of Republicanism in the last few years, making Clinton’s wins in 1992 and 1996 irrelevant, but it’s possible. Maybe Grayson is concerned about Paul’s sudden popularity regardless. As Dan in the comments pointed out, this is a primary we’re talking about. I think Grayson’s Clinton support will be less of a factor in the general election but I’m saying that many primary voters are unlikely to see a big scarlet ‘D’ on Grayson’s chest for what he may now call a ‘youthful indiscretion.’

I’d like to see a breakdown of Republican voters in Kentucky. How many of Paul’s supporters are self-identified independents? How many haven’t voted before? Maybe I’m reading too much Nate Silver, but it seems like while Paul’s popularity is real, his lead leans more toward statistical anomaly than conservative uprising.

Another Thought On The Senate Poll

Jack Conway says he leads Daniel Mongiardo among people who know both candidates. Is Conway suffering from a lack of recognition outside of Louisville?

And what about Rand Paul leading Trey Grayson? It seems like Grayson’s supporters have taken steps to get voters more acquainted with Paul’s alleged platform in hopes that some libertarian-like ideals won’t appeal to social conservatives.

Paul Pulls Ahead, Conway Has Another Poll

You’ve probably heard about the latest Survey USA Senate poll that has Rand Paul leading Trey Grayson and Daniel Mongriardo with a double-digit over Jack Conway. Well, Conway has another poll he’s citing to show that he’s not out of the race.

But what will this mean for the Senate race? I imagine Grayson will continue his slight lean to the right and I wonder if Conway is thinking of using those infamous Mongiardo tapes in some upcoming ads. Maybe he’s regretting not doing so already.