NPR has posted the results of a recent poll. It shows 37 percent voter dissatisfaction with incumbent Representatives, and predicts several GOP wins in contest House races.

FiveThirtyEight says this is in line with earlier generic ballot polls, and says the odds of Democrats losing control of the House are about even, though it’s more likely.  NPR Political Editor Ken Rudin says such a large shift isn’t unprecedented, but is rare.

Think back to the huge Democratic gains in 2006 and 2008, or the Republican tide of 1980; none of those resulted in as many as 39 seats.

Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post points out that the poll also indicates a possible problem with Democratic message:

Presented with those two options, 39 percent of respondents in the 70 House districts tested said they agreed with the Democratic statement while 52 percent chose the Republican statement.

Inside the numbers was no more encouraging for Democrats. In the 60 Democratic districts, 40 percent agreed with the Democratic statement and 51 percent sided with the GOP statement; in the so-called “tier one” seats — the 30 most competitive seats — 39 percent said they agreed with the Democratic statement while 51 percent chose the Republican message.

Advertisements