A poll of the U.S. Senate race conducted by Braun Research for CN2 gives Republican Rand Paul a slight lead over Democratic candidate Jack Conway (41%-38%). This is the closest poll of the general election, and with this survey more than others, undecideds are shown to be key. 19% percent of those polled had not yet made a decision in the contest, and it looks like many of the undecideds were political moderates.

Conway led among those who considered themselves to be moderates, 52% to 18%. Nearly 27% of moderates said they haven’t made up their mind.

“When you step back and look at it at arm’s length, the race is up for grabs because the middle is up for grabs,” said Al Cross, director of the Institute for Rural Journalism at the University of Kentucky and former political writer for the Louisville Courier-Journal.