The survey of 618 likely voters gives Fischer 47 percent support, with Heiner receiving 45 percent. The polls margin of error is plus or minus four percent.
Both men received 45 percent in the previous Bluegrass Poll last month.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in Jefferson County by a 59 to 32 percent margin.
The new poll gives independent Jackie Green two-percent support, down from three percent last month. Independents Jerry Mills and Nimbus Couzin received one-percent and zero percent, respectively.
According to the crosstabs, fewer Democrats say they’re crossing party lines to support Heiner, and Heiner’s lead among Republicans has dropped slightly.
- Fischer 76%
- Heiner 16%
- Undecided 4%
- Fischer 12%
- Heiner 81%
- Undecided 5%
Heiner also has a lead with independents.
- Fischer 39%
- Heiner 49%
- Undecided 9%
“It’s not unexpected that certain parts, groups within a poll would jump around,” Heiner explained, “But, for instance, independents came, shows a lot of people from an independent registration coming into our campaign. But at the end of the day we’re tied, and it’s going to be great for Louisville.”
Independent candidate Jackie Green is polling at just 2 percent. But he says there is no movement between Fischer and Heiner and because our pollster calls people with landlines, Green says that ignores a huge portion of his support, young people who only have cell phones.
And when asked about winning back a few Democrats, Fischer said this:
“It’s important to have the Democaratic Party, and I have a lot of Republicians voting for me as well. The mayor’s job is about job creation and problem solving, so people are looking at this as who’s best qualified to lead the city, who has the experience to do that, both in terms of management and leadership but also job creation. So that’s why I think I’m picking up the gain here.”