FiveThirtyEight (now part of the New York Times) is giving Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth a 4.9% chance of losing the Third District House seat to Republican Todd Lally. By considering and weighing different polls that have been conducted in the race, the site predicts that Yarmuth will win by eleven points in November.

In Kentucky’s Sixth District, the outlook is not as positive. While FiveThirtyEight gives Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler a 59% chance of winning over Republican Andy Barr, the site predicts Chandler will have only a 1.7-point lead on Election Day.