While FiveThirtyEight doesn’t see much competition in Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District, the site does say the competition for other seats has increased. In fact, the number of competitive House races has doubled this cycle.
Currently, the folks at Cook Political consider a total of 87 House races to be either toss-ups or to merely “lean” toward one or the other party. This is an unprecedented number in recent history. At a comparable point in the past six election cycles — that is, with about 25 days to go until the election — Cook Political had put the number of highly competitive races at between 34 and 56; this year’s figure is roughly twice as high.
Cook Political and the other expert forecasters that our model uses have a very good track record — but if they have a flaw, it’s that they can be overly cautious, characterizing some races as being highly competitive when that isn’t necessarily borne out by objective evidence. Perhaps they’re simply hedging too much this year?
FiveThirtyEight predicts the GOP will gain 47 or 48 seats.