The latest Rasmussen poll gives Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul a wider lead over Democrat Jack Conway than the latest Bluegrass Poll. (12 points in Rasmussen versus 9 in the SurveyUSA Bluegrass Poll.)

Polls in the Louisville mayor’s race have also varied. First, Democrat Greg Fischer and Republican Hal Heiner were tied, then Fischer’s lead widened, then Heiner was given the edge in the latest Bluegrass Poll. CN2’s polls have consistently shown Fischer in the lead.


CN2 offers an explanation, which goes into sampling, weighting and the polling method.

FiveThirtyEight has more on one point mentioned in the CN2 post. Automated polls, in which a recording–not a real person–asks the questions, favor Republicans.