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FiveThirtyEight Considers Third And Sixth District Races

FiveThirtyEight (now part of the New York Times) is giving Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth a 4.9% chance of losing the Third District House seat to Republican Todd Lally. By considering and weighing different polls that have been conducted in the race, the site predicts that Yarmuth will win by eleven points in November. In Kentucky’s […]

FiveThirtyEight To NYT

The New York Times will now host FiveThirtyEight, and the site’s founder, Nate Silver, will contribute to the paper. This doesn’t have anything to do with Kentucky news, but we do often reference FiveThirtyEight’s political analysis, and it looks like Silver will help process data at the paper of record. Along with his contributions to […]

FiveThirtyEight Followup

Nate Silver has this to say on the Republican Senate primary: …for all his libertarian and tea-party dressing, Paul in fact ran on a fairly conventional, conservative platform. He’s pro-life, anti-gay marriage, anti-immigration … there are only the faintest hints of libertarianism here. This was probably a good thing for him because Kentucky, which has […]

FiveThirtyEight On The Senate Primaries

Ed Kilgore at FiveThirtyEight has an analysis of the polls in the U.S. Senate race, and he says the Rand Paul phenomenon may not be all it’s cracked up to be, though Paul will likely win. Anything other than a Rand Paul romp to victory tonight would be a major upset. Grayson has not led […]

Unions, The Public And The Economy

Union membership has declined in the private sector. The Economist wonders whether it’s time for public-sector unions (city employees, etc)  to suffer the same fate. Sociological Images says this about the shift in union makeup. Such a change, from primarily private-sector and often blue-collar workers to government employees, many of whom will be white-collar, middle-class, […]

On Polls

The latest Rasmussen poll gives Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul a wider lead over Democrat Jack Conway than the latest Bluegrass Poll. (12 points in Rasmussen versus 9 in the SurveyUSA Bluegrass Poll.) Polls in the Louisville mayor’s race have also varied. First, Democrat Greg Fischer and Republican Hal Heiner were tied, then Fischer’s lead […]

Senate Debate Addendum

Here is the WFPL story on Sunday night’s debate between U.S. Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul. Here is the full audio of the debate. Here is the ad the two candidates discuss throughout the debate. Here as a fundraising update. Paul led Conway in the last quarter. Here is the latest forecast on […]

House Competition Picks Up

While FiveThirtyEight doesn’t see much competition in Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District, the site does say the competition for other seats has increased. In fact, the number of competitive House races has doubled this cycle. Currently, the folks at Cook Political consider a total of 87 House races to be either toss-ups or to merely “lean” toward […]

What Are Candidates Talking About?

This season, many Republicans are quick to say Democrats are trying to run away from the president, or from the health care overhaul. But that may not be the case. Take a look at this data from FiveThirtyEight: With the help of FiveThirtyEight’s news assistant, Micah Cohen, I studied the campaign Web sites of Republican […]

What Happens If Manchin Runs?

There have been quite a few updates on NPR today about the West Virginia Senate seat once held by Robert Byrd. A special election to fill the seat will be held this November. The announcement has put another Democratic seat on the GOP’s radar. But how likely is it that the rural state will go red?