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An internal poll conducted for the gubernatorial ticket of Senate President David Williams and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer gives the slate the lead in the GOP primary with 47% of the vote

The poll places Jefferson County Clerk Bobbie Holsclaw and her running mate Bill Vermillion in second place with 10%. Louisville businessman Phil Moffett and his running mate, state Representative Mike Harmon, trail with 9%.

CN2 has the response from the Holsclaw and Moffett campaigns. Both criticize the numbers, either by dismissing them or pointing out that Williams and Farmer have support from less than half of those polled.

On the Democratic side, incumbent Steve Beshear is running unopposed with Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramsonsharing the ticket.

Independent Gatewood Galbraith is also running with Dea Riley as his running mate.



Public Policy Polling’s latest survey shows Rand Paul with 55% of the vote and Jack Conway with 40%.

Conway’s unfavorables are high in the poll. A majority of those who responded also say they do not approve of the job the President or Kentucky’s current two Senators are doing.

A new WHAS-11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll gives Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul a nine-point lead over Democrat Jack Conway, with a 4% margin of error.

  • Paul (R) 52%
  • Conway (D) 43%
  • Undecided 4%

The poll was conducted between Sunday and Wednesday, after the Aqua Buddha ad kerfuffle and before and after the debate violence.

According to the crosstabs, Paul leads in every region (but narrowly in Louisville), with men and with every age group except 18-34 year-olds.

For the first time, Republican Hal Heiner has the lead in a poll of the Louisville mayor’s race.

The Bluegrass Poll conducted for WHAS-11 and the Courier-Journal shows Heiner with 51 percent of the vote, compared to Democratic candidate Greg Fischer’s 44 percent.

The first Bluegrass Poll in the race showed the two candidates tied. Subsequent polls have given Fischer the lead. Fischer spokesperson Chris Poynter says internal polls show that the race is even, and the campaign will continue its “get out the vote” efforts as planned.

“The closer we get to November 2nd, the more Democrats are going to get more energized and they’re definitely going to get out and vote Tuesday,” says Poynter.

Heiner campaign manager Joe Burgan says the poll shows that voters who were putting off making a decision have now chosen to side with Heiner.

“People push back making their decisions in these races later and later every year,” he says. “So, based on our internal polling, it matches. People have started to tune into this race to make their decision.”

The poll was conducted between October 21st and 25th, after independent Jackie Green dropped out to endorse Fischer. Polls conducted for Insight’s CN2 news service have given Fischer the lead in the race.

From WFPL:

The latest Bluegrass Poll in the Louisville mayor’s race shows Democratic candidate Greg Fischer with his widest lead yet.

The survey of likely voters has Fischer with 48 percent and Republican Hal Heiner with 42 percent. The poll has a margin of error of just over four percent.

The first Bluegrass Poll in the race showed the two candidates tied, each with 45 percent of the vote.

The second poll gave Fischer a two-point lead, which was within the margin of error.

Independent candidates Jackie Green, Nimbus Couzin (cousin) and Jerry T. Mills earned a total of four percent. Six percent of voters were undecided.

The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA for the Courier-Journal and WHAS11.

The latest Bluegrass Poll (from the Courier-Journal and WHAS11, commissioned by Survey USA) shows Democratic Senate candidate Jack Conway two points behind Republican Rand Paul.

  • Paul – 49%
  • Conway – 47%
  • Undecided – 4%

Paul strongest lead is in eastern Kentucky. The two are tied in northern Kentucky. Conway has a slight lead in Louisville, and Paul has a slight lead in western Kentucky. Neither candidate has a distinct advantage with any age group. Conway has a large lead with women, but Paul has a comparable advantage with male voters. Paul’s support with voters who make more than $50,000 a year has dropped.

The latest WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll shows a tight race in the 3rd Congressional District. Incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth has a 2-point lead over Republican Todd Lally. The poll gives Yarmuth 47% and Lally 45% with 5% of voters undecided and a 4.3% margin of error. It’s a statistical dead heat. (Libertarian Ed Martin and independent Michael Hansen each have 1%.)

WHAS-11 says Lally is hoping for national support, now that a poll shows he’s a viable candidate, but Yarmuth isn’t so sure.

And this jolt of credibility to Lally’s campaign could prompt the Republican National Campaign Committee to jump off the sidelines and invest in the campaign.

“We’ve been hard as a newcomer to politics to raise some of the money that we need,” Lally acknowledged, “This will energize our base.  We will be able to make some very pointed calls and raise money very fast now.”

“The Republicans have a lot less money to spend,” Yarmuth continued, “and I don’t think that on the basis of this one poll that they are all of a sudden going to elevate this to a high priority race.  I just can’t see that happening.”

Perhaps surprisingly, Lally leads Yarmuth among 18-49 year-olds, but Yarmuth has the edge with those over 50.

Your thoughts?

WFPL’s Rick Howlett has this on the latest WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll, which shows a statistical dead heat between Democrat Greg Fischer and Republican Hal Heiner:

The survey of 618 likely voters gives Fischer 47 percent support, with Heiner receiving 45 percent. The polls margin of error is plus or minus four percent.

Both men received 45 percent in the previous Bluegrass Poll last month.

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in Jefferson County by a 59 to 32 percent margin.

The new poll gives independent Jackie Green two-percent support, down from three percent last month. Independents Jerry Mills and Nimbus Couzin received one-percent and zero percent, respectively.

According to the crosstabs, fewer Democrats say they’re crossing party lines to support Heiner, and Heiner’s lead among Republicans has dropped slightly.

Among Democrats:

  • Fischer 76%
  • Heiner 16%
  • Undecided 4%

And Republicans:

  • Fischer 12%
  • Heiner 81%
  • Undecided 5%

Heiner also has a lead with independents.

  • Fischer 39%
  • Heiner 49%
  • Undecided 9%

Heiner and Green talked about the poll with WHAS:

“It’s not unexpected that certain parts, groups within a poll would jump around,” Heiner explained, “But, for instance, independents came, shows a lot of people from an independent registration coming into our campaign.  But at the end of the day we’re tied, and it’s going to be great for Louisville.”

Independent candidate Jackie Green is polling at just 2 percent. But he says there is no movement between Fischer and Heiner and because our pollster calls people with landlines, Green says that ignores a huge portion of his support, young people who only have cell phones.

And when asked about winning back a few Democrats, Fischer said this:

“It’s important to have the Democaratic Party, and I have a lot of Republicians voting for me as well. The mayor’s job is about job creation and problem solving, so people are looking at this as who’s best qualified to lead the city, who has the experience to do that, both in terms of management and leadership but also job creation.  So that’s why I think I’m picking up the gain here.”

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows that voters are pessimistic. Very pessimistic.

Just one in five approve of the job Congress is doing while a whopping 72 percent disapprove. Six in ten say that this Congress’ performance has been either below average (28 percent) or “one of the worst” (32 percent). (Just six percent describe it as “one of the best” or “above average”.)

The two political parties fare little better. Thirty-three percent of the sample view the Democratic party positively while 44 percent view it negatively; the news is even worse for Republicans who are seen in a positive light by by 24 percent and a negative one by 46 percent — the worst showing ever for the GOP in the NBC/WSJ poll.

The poll doesn’t seem to indicate bad news for any single party, but for incumbents in general. Granted, Democrats may suffer the most since they’re the party in power, but GOP incumbents aren’t in a safe spot either, depending on their challengers. This isn’t exactly surprising news, but the numbers are higher than many observers may have expected. “Someone else” is still one of the most attractive candidates out there.

Less than two weeks after a WHAS-11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll showed the mayor’s race tied between Democrat Greg Fischer and Republican Hal Heiner, a CN2 poll shows Fischer with a 7 point lead. Independent Jackie Green wins 3% of voters in both polls.

The CN2 poll gives both candidates a lower percentage of votes. Fischer has about 40, Heiner 33. More than a fifth of voters are undecided. That’s far above the Bluegrass Poll, which showed 4% of voters undecided.

The poll covered a number of topics, so by digging into the crosstabs, we can see which issues are at the front of Louisvillians’ minds.

For example, the Ohio River Bridges Project takes second place to jobs and the economy as voters’ most important issues (68.3% to 12.5%). As CN2 points out, just above 50% of those polled say they prefer the East End Bridge over the downtown bridge. Further, the poll reveals that Mayor Jerry Abramson is still popular among Louisvillians.

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