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Legislation that would allow registered independents to vote in party primaries in Kentucky is unlikely to pass this year.

The Senate has passed the bill, but it does not have enough support to clear a House committee.

The measure would let the nearly 200,000 independents in Kentucky choose a primary to vote in for each election. Senator Jimmy Higdon sponsored the measure and he says he will try to pass it again next year.

Opponents of the bill say primaries should be meant for the party faithful to choose candidates.

The primaries are over and while the Democratic Senate contest was close, the big races more or less followed pre-election polls. But this may be an outlying circumstance. As FiveThirtyEight reports, southern primary polls are not especially accurate.

Whereas the average error in general election polls is on the order of 3-4 points for Presidential races, and 4-5 points for Senate and gubernatorial races, it’s more like 7 points when forecasting the margin between the top two primary candidates. Between late-deciding voters, uncertainties accounting to turnout, and sometimes unusual demographics, the pollsters have a lot of challenges on their hands.

But the polls have been especially bad in one particular type of primary: that involving Southern Democrats. There, the average error has been slightly over 9 points.

Much of this is driven by 2008, when the polls tended to lowball Barack Obama’s performance in Southern states. In those primaries, the polls missed by an average of 9.4 points. Outside of those Clinton-Obama contests, the sample size is fairly small: about 35 polls covering roughly 10 Democratic contests. Still, the error on those non-2008 races is above-average: 7.6 points, higher than what its been for Democrats in other regions.

The bottom line is that if you’re used to taking polls with a grain of salt, primary polls require more like a tablespoon’s worth. And polls of Southern Democratic primaries might need a whole salt shaker.

The primary is tomorrow (haven’t you heard?), and there’s no shortage of information on the candidates for various races.

If you’re looking to learn about Metro Government races, you can start with WFPL’s Next Louisville coverage. The coverage includes feature stories, short articles and hour-long State of Affairs discussions about the mayor’s race and the Metro Council primaries.

The staff at LEO says if you haven’t been paying attention to the race, it’s time to start cramming, and you can add their guide to the mayor’s race to your reading list. After that, check out their guide to the Metro Council races.

To complete the information overload, click over to the Courier-Journal’s election guide, which has information on every race in the state and lets you customize a ballot for your precinct.

With all the major party candidates filed away, I’ve been thinking about the Metro Council. It seems like the 19th and 25th Districts will be races to watch. Doug Hawkins is defending his seat from a Republican challenger and a Democrat, while three Republicans and one Democrat are vying for the seat Hal Heiner will leave behind for the mayor’s race.

We reported on the upcoming race in the 9th District, too. Tina Ward-Pugh has three challengers, two Republicans and one Democrat.

I haven’t spoken with all of the candidates just yet, but stay tuned for more details.

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